June 2021 Economic Outlook

If you look at the stock market alone, you could assume the economy must be better than ever. In fact, much better. While the S&P 500 is higher the first week of June 2021 than its pre-COVID peak in February 2020, real GDP dropped by 10.4%. Massive government spending and stimulus have had a lot to do with the V-shaped GDP recovery, which may not be sustainable.

The real story comes in the employment numbers. The U.S. is still down 5.0% from the top. If businesses were as optimistic as the stock market “on crack,” they would be hiring more and faster, but that is not the case. 26% of the 7.6 million-job deficit has come simply because older Baby Boomers retired early.

 Just as savvy ocean swimmers always keep an eye on the shoreline that might be needed in an emergency, savvy investors would be wise to develop their exit strategies. Before it’s too late

The Investor’s Advantage Risk-O-Meter reflects the company’s overall opinion on the economy and the stock market.  Leading indicators include the US Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Leading Indexes, Global Economic Outlook, Corporate Profit Growth, Inflation, Equity Market Valuation, and Geopolitical Risk.

Do you know how much risk your portfolio and retirement accounts are taking? Understanding the risk of the economy and how it relates to your money is crucial. However, this means nothing if your investments aren’t designed around YOUR risk tolerance and YOUR financial goals. We’ve partnered with the fantastic folks at Riskalyze to offer a free tool that pinpoints your Risk Number so that you may informatively guide your portfolios asset allocation.

The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice.  This information is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation.